Ithy - Unveiling the NFL's Hidden Champions: Decoding Against-the-Spread Records Over Five Years

Key Insights into NFL ATS Performance

Against the Spread (ATS) records are a critical metric for bettors, showcasing a team's performance relative to the oddsmakers' expectations rather than just outright wins and losses.
Over the last five years (May 2020 - May 2025), teams like the Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, and Miami Dolphins have consistently demonstrated strong ATS performance, often covering the spread even when their straight-up win records are less impressive.
Conversely, powerhouse teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, despite their dominance in actual wins, exhibit a mixed ATS record, suggesting that public expectation often sets a higher bar for them, making it harder to consistently cover.

The National Football League (NFL) is a dynamic landscape where team performance is often measured by wins and losses. However, for those keen on understanding the nuances of how teams perform relative to expectations, the "Against The Spread" (ATS) record offers a crucial alternative perspective. An ATS record illustrates how frequently a team covers the point spread set by oddsmakers. A team "covers" if they win by more points than anticipated when favored, or lose by fewer points (or win outright) when an underdog. A "push" occurs when the final score lands exactly on the point spread, resulting in a tie for betting purposes.

This metric is an invaluable tool for handicappers and bettors alike, providing insight into a team's consistency and ability to exceed or fall short of market expectations. Analyzing ATS records over a five-year span—from approximately May 2020 to May 2025—reveals compelling trends and identifies teams that have proven to be more "profitable" against the spread, regardless of their overall win-loss records.

NFL Stadium with a full crowd watching a game.

A packed NFL stadium, symbolizing the widespread interest in team performance and betting outcomes.

Decoding the Against-the-Spread Metric

Understanding ATS records is fundamental to sports betting. Unlike traditional win/loss records that only reflect game outcomes, ATS records account for the point spread, which is the oddsmaker's projection of the winning margin. For example, if a team is favored by -7 points and wins by 10 points, they cover the spread. If they win by only 3 points, they do not. Conversely, if an underdog is given +7 points and loses by 5 points, they cover the spread. This distinction is critical because it highlights how well a team performs relative to the market's perception of their strength.

The Nuances of Point Spreads

Point spreads are dynamic, shifting based on various factors such as team news, injuries, betting volume, and historical performance. These fluctuations, known as "line movement," can significantly impact ATS outcomes. Key numbers, such as -3 (a common margin for field goals) and -7 (a common margin for a touchdown and extra point), are particularly important. Teams favored by -4 and -6 points have historically been more profitable small favorites over long periods, while those at -2.5, -3.5, and -6.5 have tended to perform worse against the spread. Recognizing these patterns can give bettors a distinct advantage.

Top NFL Teams Against the Spread (Last 5 Years: May 2020 - May 2025)

While a single, exhaustive source for all 32 teams' exact ATS records over the past five years isn't readily available, synthesizing data from multiple credible sources allows for a comprehensive overview of the top performers and notable trends. The period covers approximately the 2019-2024 NFL seasons, factoring in recent performance up to May 2025.

Consistent ATS Overperformers

Baltimore Ravens: With an ATS record of 48-33-2 since 2019, the Ravens consistently rank among the top teams against the spread. Their strong defensive identity and disciplined play often allow them to exceed expectations.
Green Bay Packers: Boasting an impressive 49-34 ATS record over the last five years, the Packers have proven to be a reliable bet. Their consistent offensive firepower, often led by top-tier quarterback play, enables them to cover spreads effectively.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins have an ATS record of 48-34-1 since 2019, notably outperforming their straight-up win/loss record. This indicates that they are often undervalued by oddsmakers or consistently play closer games than anticipated, making them an attractive betting option.
Detroit Lions: Despite having a more modest straight win-loss record (32-49-2), the Lions have a strong ATS record of 47-35-1 over the last half-decade. This suggests they frequently cover the spread, even in games they ultimately lose, highlighting their competitiveness. They have also shown strong recent form with a 26-12 ATS record since 2023.
San Francisco 49ers: With a solid 47-36 ATS record over the past five years, the 49ers have consistently performed well against the spread, often due to their stout defense and strong running game.
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys share a 47-36 ATS record since 2019, indicating similar reliability in covering spreads, often fueled by their high-powered offense.

Notable Teams and Their ATS Performance

Kansas City Chiefs: Despite being one of the most dominant teams in terms of outright wins (66-18 overall from May 2020 to May 2025), the Chiefs have a more mixed ATS record of 38-44-2 during the same period. This paradox is common for highly successful teams, as their public perception and consistent excellence often lead to steeper point spreads, making it harder to cover.
Los Angeles Chargers: The Chargers finished the 2024-25 NFL season with an excellent 12-4-1 ATS record, indicating strong recent form against the spread.
Denver Broncos: The Broncos also had a strong 2024 season with a 12-6-0 ATS record, showcasing their ability to perform well relative to expectations.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles posted a 14-7-0 ATS record in the 2024 season, demonstrating their resilience and competitiveness against the spread.
Tennessee Titans: Conversely, the Titans had the worst ATS record in the 2024-25 season, going 2-14-1 ATS, suggesting they frequently failed to meet expectations.

Below is a summary table presenting the approximate ATS records for notable NFL teams over the last five years (2019-2024 seasons, with some recent data up to May 2025):

Team	ATS Record (W-L-T)	Notes
Baltimore Ravens	48-33-2	Consistent top ATS performer
Green Bay Packers	49-34	Very strong and reliable ATS competitor
Miami Dolphins	48-34-1	ATS record better than straight-up wins
Detroit Lions	47-35-1	Strong ATS despite weaker straight-up wins
San Francisco 49ers	47-36	Solid ATS performer
Dallas Cowboys	47-36	Solid ATS performer
Kansas City Chiefs	38-44-2	Dominant in straight wins, mixed ATS
Los Angeles Chargers (recent)	12-4-1 (2024-25 season)	Strong recent ATS record
Tennessee Titans (recent)	2-14-1 (2024-25 season)	Worst recent ATS record
Denver Broncos (recent)	12-6-0 (2024-25 season)	Strong recent ATS record

Factors Influencing ATS Performance and Betting Trends

NFL betting trends are often stat or scenario-based, providing valuable handicapping tools. These trends can involve a variety of situations that influence a team's ability to cover the spread. Analyzing these factors can provide deeper insights beyond just raw ATS records.

Situational Analysis

Team vs. Division/Conference Data

How a team performs against opponents within their division or conference can reveal specific strengths or weaknesses. Divisional games, in particular, often have tighter spreads due to familiarity between teams.
Home/Road Performance

A team's ATS record when playing at home versus on the road, or as a home favorite/underdog, can be a significant factor. For instance, the Arizona Cardinals had a perfect 6-0 ATS record at home in a recent season, showcasing the impact of home-field advantage on betting outcomes.
Performance as Favorite/Underdog

How a team performs against the spread when they are favored or when they are the underdog is crucial. Some teams consistently cover as underdogs, while others struggle to meet the higher expectations placed on them as favorites.
Over/Under Results

The Over/Under (O/U) trend indicates how often the total points scored in a game exceed or fall short of the oddsmakers' projected total. While distinct from ATS, these trends often correlate with a team's offensive and defensive efficiency, indirectly influencing their ATS potential. For example, in 2024, the Los Angeles Chargers had a 9-9-0 Over/Under record, and the Philadelphia Eagles were 10-11-0, reflecting balanced outcomes for their game totals.

Data-Driven Insights

Game Logs

Detailed records of each team's performance, including win/loss results, scores, ATS records, point spreads, and totals results for each regular season game, provide granular data for analysis.
Line Changes

Monitoring the movement of point spreads, money lines, and totals lines, which are updated multiple times daily, can reveal public sentiment and sharp money movements that may indicate where the value lies.
Historical Data

Analyzing historical betting results and trends helps identify long-term profitability. This includes looking at how teams have performed at specific point spreads, as discussed earlier with the profitable nature of -4 and -6 favorites.

Utilizing NFL databases and game logs allows bettors to filter and obtain current or historic NFL betting trends to gain a competitive edge. Monitoring team performance against the spread throughout the season is crucial for making informed betting decisions, as identifying specific team trends can help in deciding when to bet on or against a particular spread.

The radar chart above provides a visual comparison of several key ATS performance dimensions for some of the prominent teams discussed. Each spoke represents a different aspect of ATS success, such as overall consistency, ability to cover as a favorite or underdog, and performance in specific game scenarios like home or divisional matchups. This chart illustrates how teams like the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions excel in various ATS metrics, while the Kansas City Chiefs, despite their overall dominance, might show different patterns due to higher expectations from oddsmakers.

The Significance of ATS Records for Bettors

For individuals involved in sports betting, ATS records are often more insightful than traditional win/loss records. They provide a deeper understanding of a team's true value against the market's assessment.

Identifying Value and Profitability

Teams with consistently strong ATS records, like the Ravens, Packers, and Dolphins, can be considered "safer bets" to cover the spread, as they frequently exceed expectations. Conversely, teams that frequently fail to cover the spread, even if they win outright, might be overvalued by the public or oddsmakers, creating opportunities to bet against them.

The Chiefs' mixed ATS record, despite their consistent winning, highlights a crucial point: high-performing teams often come with steep spreads. This means that while they win games, they don't always do so by enough points to cover the large spread, which can lead to losses for bettors. This contrasts with teams like the Lions, who, despite having a lower straight-up win record, consistently cover spreads, making them potentially more profitable for ATS bettors.

"We Ranked All 32 NFL Teams by Tier — Some of These Will..." This video discusses team rankings for the upcoming 2025 season, which provides context for why certain teams might be perceived as stronger or weaker, influencing their ATS performance and betting lines. Understanding these broader team perceptions can help explain some of the ATS trends observed over the past five years.

Navigating Fluctuating Trends

It's important to note that ATS records can fluctuate significantly from season to season. Therefore, bettors should always consider recent trends and situational factors. A team might have an excellent five-year ATS record, but a recent string of injuries, coaching changes, or poor performance could alter their immediate ATS prospects. Factors like home/away splits, performance in divisional games, and rest days (as affected by the schedule) can also influence a team's ability to cover the spread in any given week.

mindmap root["NFL ATS Performance Analysis (Last 5 Years)"] id1["Key Concepts"] id1_1["Against The Spread (ATS) Defined"] id1_1_1["Performance relative to expectations"] id1_1_2["Not just win/loss record"] id1_1_3["Cover vs. Not Cover vs. Push"] id1_2["Importance for Bettors"] id1_2_1["Crucial Handicapping Tool"] id1_2_2["Identifies Value"] id2["Top ATS Performers (May 2020 - May 2025)"] id2_1["Baltimore Ravens: 48-33-2"] id2_1_1["Consistent ATS success"] id2_2["Green Bay Packers: 49-34"] id2_2_1["Strong ATS record"] id2_3["Miami Dolphins: 48-34-1"] id2_3_1["Better ATS than straight-up wins"] id2_4["Detroit Lions: 47-35-1"] id2_4_1["Covers often despite lower win rate"] id2_4_2["Recent: 26-12 ATS since 2023"] id2_5["San Francisco 49ers: 47-36"] id2_5_1["Solid overall ATS"] id2_6["Dallas Cowboys: 47-36"] id2_6_1["Solid overall ATS"] id3["Notable ATS Trends & Other Teams"] id3_1["Kansas City Chiefs: 38-44-2"] id3_1_1["Dominant in wins, mixed ATS"] id3_1_2["Higher expectations lead to tougher covers"] id3_2["Recent Season Standouts (2024-25)"] id3_2_1["Los Angeles Chargers: 12-4-1 ATS"] id3_2_2["Denver Broncos: 12-6-0 ATS"] id3_2_3["Philadelphia Eagles: 14-7-0 ATS"] id3_3["Worst Recent ATS: Tennessee Titans (2-14-1)"] id4["Factors Influencing ATS"] id4_1["Situational Performance"] id4_1_1["Team vs. Division/Conference"] id4_1_2["Home/Road Splits"] id4_1_3["Favorite/Underdog Role"] id4_2["Data & Analytics"] id4_2_1["Game Logs for Detailed History"] id4_2_2["Line Movement Analysis"] id4_2_3["Historical Point Spread Profitability"] id4_3["Over/Under Trends"] id4_3_1["Correlates with offensive/defensive efficiency"] id5["Betting Implications"] id5_1["Identifying Undervalued/Overvalued Teams"] id5_2["Long-term vs. Short-term Trends"] id5_3["Utilizing Databases for Edge"]

The mindmap above visually organizes the complex relationships between ATS performance, influencing factors, and betting implications. It clearly delineates key concepts, lists the top ATS performers over the last five years, highlights other notable teams and their recent trends, and breaks down the various factors that influence a team's ability to cover the spread. This structured overview can help in understanding how different elements contribute to a team's overall ATS profile and how bettors can leverage this information.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What does "Against The Spread" (ATS) mean in NFL betting?

ATS refers to a team's record against the point spread set by oddsmakers. It indicates how often a team covers the expected margin of victory or loss, rather than simply winning or losing the game outright. For example, if a team is favored by 7 points and wins by 10, they covered the spread. If they win by 3, they did not.

Why are ATS records important for bettors?

ATS records provide crucial insight into a team's performance relative to market expectations. They help bettors identify undervalued teams that consistently cover the spread or overvalued teams that often fail to meet expectations, regardless of their actual win-loss record. This allows for more informed betting decisions.

Do top winning teams also have the best ATS records?

Not necessarily. While some top winning teams also perform well ATS, others, like the Kansas City Chiefs, might have a mixed ATS record despite their dominance in wins. This is often because oddsmakers set very high spreads for highly successful teams, making it harder for them to consistently cover.

How often do ATS records change?

ATS records are dynamic and can fluctuate significantly season by season, or even week by week. Factors like injuries, coaching changes, schedule strength, and line movement all impact a team's ability to cover the spread. Therefore, it's essential to consider recent trends and situational factors alongside long-term data.

What factors influence a team's ATS performance?

Many factors influence ATS performance, including home/road splits, performance as a favorite or underdog, divisional matchups, injury reports, coaching strategies, and general team momentum. Analyzing these situational trends can provide a deeper understanding of a team's ATS potential.

Conclusion

Analyzing NFL betting records against the spread over the last five years reveals a landscape where success is measured not just by wins, but by performance relative to expectation. Teams like the Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, and Miami Dolphins have consistently demonstrated their ability to cover the spread, making them attractive options for bettors. In contrast, while teams like the Kansas City Chiefs dominate in outright wins, their higher public perception often leads to larger spreads, making their ATS performance more volatile. Understanding these nuanced ATS trends, combined with an awareness of situational factors and data-driven insights, is essential for anyone looking to make informed decisions in the dynamic world of NFL betting.